ESD scenarios


These pages contain results from statistical downscaling for various geographical locations (stations) in Norway. The data are taken from the following sources:

  • Prediction of local monthly precipitation during the period 1870-2050 based on the 2m temperature and the SLP field from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GSDIO integration (which includes effects of greenhouse-gases and tropospheric ozon, as well as direct and indirect effects of sulphur aeroseols).
  • Prediction of local monthly mean temperature during the period 1870-2050, also based on the 2m temperature field from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GSDIO integration.

    The model results from dynamical downscaling is presented throught graphical maps for selected surface weather parameters. The data from the computational grid of the regional climate model have been made available for downloading in ascii-format for a selected geographical area covering the Nordic countries.

    Presently, the model results are described in:

    RegClim Gen. Techn. Rep. No 8, 2005, p. 35-50: Response in daily precipitation and wind speed extremes from HIRHAM downscaling of SRES B2 scenarios, by J. E. Haugen and T. Iversen

    Refined Results

    Results from Dynamical downscaling is presented here through a graphical interface that makes it possible to select stations in Norway.

    Presently the data is based on selections from the reports:

    • met.no report 15/2004 Climate : met.no report 15/2004 Refinement of dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios by Torill Engen-Skaugen.
      A method for adjusting dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios representing specific sites is presented. The method reproduces mean monthly values and standard deviations based on daily observations. The trend obtained in the regional climate model both for temperature and precipitation is maintained, and the frequency of modelled and observed rainy days shows better agreement. Thus, the method is appropriate for tailoring dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation values for climate change impact studies. One precipitation and temperature scenario dynamically downscaled with HIRHAM from the Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model at the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg, ECHAM4/OPYC4 GSDIO with emission scenario IS92a, is chosen to illustrate the adjustment method.


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